FREE - Round 3 - A hybrid model for predicting the probablity of very extreme rainfall Project

* Introduction

A hybrid physical-statistical model for very extreme rainfall statistics will be crtically examined. This model will be tested against mesoscale model simulations and its limitations explored numerically. In particular two hypotheses will be examined. The first hypotheis is that regional simulations of very extreme rainfall are consistent with the proposed hybrid model. The second hypothisis is that the hybrid model is suitable for finite time periods and can be adjusted for non-stationary parameters.

Project Duration: January 2008 - January 2010.

This project is funded by NERC - Grant Ref. NE/F011822/1 - through the Flood Risk for Etreme Events (FREE) NERC directed mode programme.

* Availability of data

This project will critically examine a hybrid physical-statistical model for very extreme rainfall statistics and test it against two hypotheses.

This study will use the Met Office UM model forced by operational analyses as a control run to model the July 2007 storm and then simulate humidity perturbations to explore the assumptions of the hybrid model. The project will also study model convergence and sensitivity to record length.

No new data sets will be archived by this project although output or initialization conditions from notable UM model runs such as those used in publications- should be preserved.

The data from this project will be stored at the BADC.

* Access to data and information

Data and metadata from this project will be stored in the BADC FREE Hybrid model project archive.

Access to FREE data held at the BADC will be restricted to the FREE participants during a restricted access period ending two years after the end date of each project. Data will be made publicly accessible after that date.

If you are a FREE participant and wish to access restricted FREE data, please

* Instructions for data providers

FREE participants wishing to submit data should read the submission instructions. If you have publications arising from FREE research please send details [title, author(s), reference] to the BADC help desk for inclusion in the archive.

* and References

Tamsin L. Edwards, Michel Crucifix, and Sandy P. Harrison. (2007). Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming. Progress in Physical Geography, 31:5, 481-500

* Citation

* Who to contact

This FREE project is headed by Prof Ralf Toumi of Imperial College London.

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