FREE - Round 1 - Identification of changing precipitation extremes and attribution to atmospheric, oceanic and climatic changes Project

* Introduction

Some of the most critical impacts of climate change will probably occur due to changes in the extremes of the hydrological cycle (droughts and floods), yet the expected changes in future precipitation and its extremes are currently quite uncertain. Scenarios of future change are derived from simulations with global and regional climate models, and our confidence in scenarios of future precipitation extremes rests on our assessment of the reliability of those models.

We propose to evaluate these models by careful comparison of their simulations with observed variations in extreme precipitation events. Our comparisons will go far beyond simple comparisons of the statistics of simulated and observed events, but will in addition assess the linkages between atmospheric circulation variability (wind speeds and directions, stability, convergence and uplift), atmospheric humidity, and resulting precipitation extremes in both models and the real world. We will then extend the assessment to consider whether including changes in greenhouse gases (and other external climate influences) in the model simulations improves the agreement with changes detected in the observational data.

Project Duration: Febraury 2007 - May 2009.

This project is funded by NERC - Grant Ref. NE/E002412/1 - through the Flood Risk for Etreme Events (FREE) NERC directed mode programme.

* Availability of data and documentation

The focus of this project is to perform new analyses of existing observational and model data. This will use the HadCM3 1000year control run data available and Met Office observation records both of which are available at the BADC. The output from this project will be in the form of an in depth comparison of simulated and observed events with additional assessment of the link between atmospheric circulation variability, humidity and precipitation events. No additional data output is expected to be archived for this project.

The metadata from this project will be stored at the BADC.

Documents currently available are:

* Access to data and information

Metadata from this project will be stored in the BADC FREE Changing precipitation extremes project archive.

Access to FREE data held at the BADC will be restricted to the FREE participants during a restricted access period ending two years after the end date of each project. Data will be made publicly accessible after that date.

If you are a FREE participant and wish to access restricted FREE data, please

* Instructions for data providers

FREE participants wishing to submit data should read the submission instructions. If you have publications arising from FREE research please send details [title, author(s), reference] to the BADC help desk for inclusion in the archive.

* Links

HadCM3 data -

Met Office MIDAS Land Surface Observations data -

* Citation

* Who to contact

This FREE project is headed by Dr Tim Osborn of the University of East Anglia (UEA), with co-investigators at the University of East Anglia.

The Project data contact is Dr Douglas Maraun at UEA.

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